[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Apr 19 22:40:15 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 192249
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192249 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-200045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0597
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0549 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN KS...NWRN OK AND ERN OK
PANHANDLE...ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK...EXTREME E-CENTRAL CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 192249Z - 200045Z

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT INVOF
DRYLINE...FROM NRN EDGE WW 164 NWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL KS...THEN WWD
ACROSS NWRN KS TOWARD SERN EDGE OF WW 163.  AREA WILL BE MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE WW.

SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES CYCLONE OVER E-CENTRAL/SERN CO E PUB. 
WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT EXTENDS EWD ACROSS CHEYENNE COUNTY CO INTO
W-CENTRAL KS VICINITY SCOTT/LANE COUNTIES...INTERSECTING DRYLINE
THERE. DRYLINE IS ANALYZED FROM JUST W CDS NWD ACROSS ERN
PANHANDLES AND WRN KS TO ROUGHLY 30 W HLC...THEN CURVING NWWD
DIFFUSELY INTO SWRN NEB.  WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT IS ACTING AS PSEUDO
DRYLINE AS WELL...WITH 20 DEG ISODROSOTHERMAL DROP ACROSS IT FROM N
TO S.

HIGH-BASED TSTMS MAY EVOLVE FROM TCU NOW EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY
ALONG AND N OF WARM FRONT AND W OF DRYLINE...WITH WIND/HAIL
POSSIBLE.  FARTHER S...DRYLINE IS COINCIDENT WITH CONFLUENCE AXIS IN
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS...INDICATING LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL EWD
MIXING/MOVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR.  ACCORDINGLY...FLOW BACKED BETWEEN
21-22Z AT CDS AND HHF STATIONS IN SERN AND NERN TX
PANHANDLE...RESPECTIVELY.  ASSOCIATED ENHANCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...COMBINED WITH DIABATIC SFC HEATING...IS CONTRIBUTING
TO DEEPENING OF CONVECTIVE BUILDUPS INVOF DRYLINE...FROM BEAVER
COUNTY OK SWD ALMOST TO I-40.  PROFILER/VWP DATA AND RUC SOUNDINGS
INDICATE STRONGEST MIDLEVEL FLOW OF 30-40 KT AND MAXIMIZED
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN A BELT CLOSE TO I-40...GRADUALLY DECREASING NWD.
 MLCAPES ARE ESTIMATED 1000-1500 J/KG WITHIN 30-50 NM E OF DRYLINE. 
RELATIVE MIN IN BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE IS INDICATED ALONG
DRYLINE SEGMENT OVER KS...HOWEVER ANY TSTMS WHICH DO FORM IN THAT
CORRIDOR ALSO MAY ROTATE AND BECOME SEVERE.

..EDWARDS.. 04/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...

35410045 38270049 38790181 38750293 39460231 39770127
39419980 37539909 34989918 34869964 34830010 34860030
34980046 

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