[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 191904
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191904 
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-192030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0594
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY/NEB PNHDL/NERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 191904Z - 192030Z

SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

RECENT TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT
BOUNDARY-LAYER WITHIN POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS ACROSS NERN CO/SRN NEB
PNHDL INTO SERN WY IS DESTABILIZING AS LOW CLOUDS ARE BECOMING MORE
CELLULAR/CUMULUS IN NATURE. FARTHER W OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...CONVECTION IS DEEPENING INTO TSTMS FROM ABOUT 50 W OF FCL
TO JUST NW OF LAR. THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT AXIS OF LOCALLY HIGHER
DEWPOINTS WRAPPING WWD/SWWD AROUND SURFACE LOW /CURRENTLY E OF GLD/
IS MIXING OUT WITH GROWING BOUNDARY-LAYER...AIR MASS IS NONETHELESS
DESTABILIZING AS A RESULT OF STRONG DIABATIC HEATING. THIS SHOULD
SUSTAIN ONGOING STORMS...AS WELL AS SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
EWD INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

GIVEN MODEST SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 20-30 KTS ATOP SURFACE NELY-ELY
WINDS...SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS...INCLUDING A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION TO LARGE
HAIL...WELL-MIXED AND RELATIVELY DEEP SUB-CLOUD LAYER OBSERVED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.

..MEAD.. 04/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

39530415 39870515 41290564 41820518 41880421 41790346
41360271 40720221 39640286 

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