[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 191549
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191548 
IAZ000-MOZ000-191645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0593
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1048 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 191548Z - 191645Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE THIS
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

AS OF 1530Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS INTENSIFYING OVER
LUCAS AND MARSHALL COUNTIES OF S-CNTRL/CNTRL IA. INSPECTION OF WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG SRN
FRINGE OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY
MAXIMUM TRANSLATING NEWD ACROSS N-CNTRL IA/S-CNTRL MN. RUC PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
WITH INFLOW SOURCE REGION BEING MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER
NERN KS INTO NWRN MO. ANTICIPATED STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WITHIN
DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS ERN IA SHOULD ALLOW THESE STORMS TO
BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE SURFACE BASED LATE THIS MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON WITHIN DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. CHANNEL OF 30-40 KT
MID-LEVEL FLOW AROUND SRN PERIPHERY OF VORTICITY LOBE /PER CURRENT
DMX VWP AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS/ WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY
WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

..MEAD.. 04/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...

40979367 42379322 43139249 43149126 42039073 41169125
40619195 40599298 

WWWW