[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 190645
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190645 
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-190715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0592
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN KS/SERN NEB/SWRN IA/NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 162...

VALID 190645Z - 190715Z

WW 162 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 07Z.

WARMING CLOUD TOPS PER IR IMAGERY AND OVERALL DECREASE IN STORM
INTENSITIES PER REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE THAT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.  

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVEN
MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG/NNE OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT
REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NERN KS/NEB BORDER REGION.  ADDITIONAL
STORMS WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO NRN IA AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE
MID MO VALLEY SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPREADS NE TOWARD SRN MN.  RUC
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MODERATE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY THROUGH 12Z TODAY...BUT DECREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
WILL LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED STORMS.  THUS...A NEW WW
WILL NOT BE ISSUED.

..PETERS.. 04/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

41809656 42169540 42179379 41329353 40279429 39649553
39739795 

WWWW