[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 190423
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190422 
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-190545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0591
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 PM CDT MON APR 18 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN AND EXTREME E-CENTRAL NEB...SWRN
IA...EXTREME NWRN MO...N-CENTRAL/NERN KS.

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 162...

VALID 190422Z - 190545Z

CONTINUE WW ALONG/AHEAD OF MCS...AND N OF TAIL END OF MCS OVER SERN
NEB.

MULTICELLULAR CLUSTER OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS WILL MOVE NEWD FROM N
OF OMA METRO INTO PORTIONS W-CENTRAL IA...MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND
MINOR WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE.  SRN PORTION OF MCS HAS BECOME PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH SEVERE TSTMS INVOF KS/NEB BORDER FROM SSE BIE TO NNW
CNK.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE INTENSE LOW LEVEL
STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...GIVEN 50 KT SLY LLJ EVIDENT IN PRE-STORM
PROXIMITY DATA FROM FBY PROFILER.  EXPECT LLJ TO VEER SLIGHTLY TO
SSW...FAVORING BACKBUILDING/TAIL-END CONVECTION.  ASSOCIATED WAA AND
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED MUCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG PER RUC FCST
SOUNDINGS.  EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCTION AND POTENTIAL FOR
MERGING/TRAINING ECHOES IN SUCH ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
HEAVY RAIN HAZARD TOO...WITH LOCALIZED RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR.

ISOLATED SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ATOP COLD POOL FROM
MCS...IN EVEN LOFTIER/ELEVATED WAA REGIME WHERE PARCELS MAY BE
ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED TO AN LFC.  CONVECTION HAS BEEN FORMING INVOF
I-80 BETWEEN LNK-YORK...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH
HAIL BEING MAIN CONCERN.  THEREFORE...AREAS BEHIND MCS OVER SERN NEB
SHOULD BE CLEARED FROM WW CAUTIOUSLY...IF AT ALL.

..EDWARDS.. 04/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

38919606 38919847 41759654 41759401 

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