[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 182326
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182326 
MNZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-190130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0587
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0626 PM CDT MON APR 18 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN NEB...WRN IA...SERN SD

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAIN...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 161...

VALID 182326Z - 190130Z

WW SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ALONG/E OF PRIMARY ARC OF CONVECTION...WHICH
CONSISTS AT 23Z OF NUMEROUS STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS OVER WRN PORTION WW.
 THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PIVOT NEWD AND NWD WHILE ADDITIONAL
BACKBUILDING/DEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG SRN END OF COMPLEX...WITH
STORMS MOVING NEWD IN TRAIN ECHO FASHION.  IN ADDITION TO SEVERE
POTENTIAL...THIS WILL CAUSE REPEATED OCCURRENCES OF 2-3 INCH/HOUR
RAIN RATES IN SOME LOCALES FROM FILLMORE/SALINE COUNTIES NEWD TO
DODGE COUNTY.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CONFLUENCE LINE EXTENDING SWWD FROM
CONVECTIVE BAND ACROSS CLAY/WEBSTER COUNTIES...WHICH SHOULD MOVE
INTO WRN/NRN NUCKOLLS COUNTY OVER NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES AND MORE DISCRETE CONVECTIVE MODE EACH FAVOR SUPERCELLS
NEAR SRN END OF MCS...THEREFORE DAMAGING HAIL POTENTIAL IS GREATEST
OVER SRN HALF OF WW.  THIS AREA IS SE OF CENTER OF MID/UPPER
CIRCULATION WHERE GEOMETRY OF DEEP-LAYER FLOW FIELDS RESULTS IN
ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND ENHANCED BULK SHEARS.  THIS AREA
IS SAMPLED WELL BY FBY PROFILER...WITH 150-200 J/KG 0-1 KM SRH AND
30-40 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. LOW-MIDLEVEL VERTICAL WIND PROFILES BECOME
MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH HEIGHT NWD PAST OMA-OLU LINE INTO NERN NEB.
 MCS AND PRECEDING CONVECTION NOW NEAR MO RIVER SHOULD SHIFT ACROSS
REMAINDER ERN NEB INTO IA NEXT 2-3 HOURS.  OTHER DEEP TCU EVIDENT
FROM OTOE COUNTY SWD INTO NERN KS MAY ALSO FORM DISCRETE STMS...WITH
SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE...OVER EXTREME SERN NEB AND SWRN IA.

..EDWARDS.. 04/18/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...

40029758 43519773 43509528 40029528 

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