[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 182256
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182256 
NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-190130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0586
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0556 PM CDT MON APR 18 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN/S-CENTRAL SD...WRN NEB...NERN
CO...NWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 182256Z - 190130Z

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 3Z
IN 40-50 NM WIDE CORRIDOR CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM 50 SSE
GLD...SNY...AIA...PHP. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.  ALTHOUGH EXPECTED
TO BE OUTFLOW-DOMINANT AND RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED...ANY GIVEN TSTM
MAY INTENSIFY ENOUGH TO BRIEFLY PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL.  ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY AFTER SUNSET...WHEN SFC BOUNDARY LAYER DIABATICALLY
COOLS.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DRYLINE NEAR AFOREMENTIONED AXIS...AND
QUASISTATIONARY NOW THAT HEATING/MIXING HAS PEAKED. DRYLINE MAY
RETREAT SLOWLY WWD OVER PORTIONS OF THIS AREA...THEREFORE THREAT
ZONE IS DRAWN ON BOTH SIDES OF PRESENT ANALYSIS POSITION.  GROWING
CB/DEEP TCU EVIDENT AS OF 2230Z ON VIS IMAGERY IN SEVERAL LOCALES
ALONG THIS DRYLINE...PARTICULARLY AROUND GLD...SNY...WRN SHERIDAN
COUNTY NEB...AND PINE RIDGE RESERVATION S OF SD BADLANDS.  MODIFIED
RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS MUCH OF THIS
CORRIDOR...WITH DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS CONDUCIVE TO
MAINTAINING DOWNDRAFT GUSTS AND HAIL TO SFC.  PROFILER/VWP
HODOGRAPHS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY GENERALLY WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOWS
BUT STRONG TURNING WITH HEIGHT...SUPPORTING ORGANIZED MULTICELL
STRUCTURES AND SHORT-LIVED MIDLEVEL ROTATION.  LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND
FIELDS WEAKEN WITH NWD EXTENT..AND STORMS SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY IN MOST
AREAS.

..EDWARDS.. 04/18/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

42280296 43190238 43830166 43700103 43250099 42250147
41760160 40930120 39140083 38460152 39250224 41260333
42120306