[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 182344
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182343 
OKZ000-TXZ000-190045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0588
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 PM CDT MON APR 18 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SWRN OK...NWRN TX AND THE ERN TX SOUTH PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 182343Z - 190045Z

CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN SOUTH PLAINS/SERN TX
PANHANDLE /INSIDE WW 160/ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND MAY EFFECT
PORTIONS OF FAR SWRN OK/NRN TX SOUTH PLAINS AND NWRN TX THROUGH
BEFORE 00-02Z. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP TO THE SE OF
LBB IN THE NEXT HOUR. THUS ANOTHER SMALL WW MAY BE NEEDED IN THE
NEXT HOUR.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SVR CONVECTION DEVELOPING UNDERNEATH THE
ANVILS OF A CLUSTER OF STRONG/SVR STORMS OVER HALE/SWISHER COUNTIES.
CURRENT/FCST STORM MOTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE SVR THREAT WILL BEGIN TO
 MOVE EWD OUT OF WW 160 BY 0030Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OUTSIDE OF WW
160 INDICATE MINIMAL SBCINH /LESS THAN 50 J/KG/ AT LEAST TO THE
LATITUDE OF GREER COUNTY OK SWD TO KNOX COUNTY TX. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH 01Z...BEFORE A GRADUAL DIURNAL INCREASE IN
INHIBITION ENSUES. CONVECTION OVER THE NRN SOUTH PLAINS /NORTH OF
LUBBOCK/ NOW BEING SUPPORTED BY SMALL STRATIFORM PRECIP REGION MAY
BECOME MORE OUTFLOW DOMINATED IN THE NEXT HOUR LOCALLY ENHANCING THE
DAMAGING WIND THREAT BRIEFLY. HOWEVER...LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INCREASING CINH IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS ALONG WITH MARGINAL
DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY LIMIT THE SVR THREAT MUCH EAST OF WW 160.

..CROSBIE.. 04/18/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

34369927 35209925 35250009 35000055 34450075 33820121
33460134 33090141 32950096 33119997 33689920 

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