[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 182120
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182120 
MNZ000-NDZ000-182315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0584
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0420 PM CDT MON APR 18 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 182120Z - 182315Z

ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY 00Z ALONG/AHEAD OF A SLOWLY SEWD
MOVING SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SW-NE OVER THE AREA. OVERALL THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED ENOUGH DUE TO MARGINAL SHEAR PROFILES THAT A
WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

RECENT SAT IMAGERY INDICATES CU HAS FORMED ALONG A SFC TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF JMS TO WEST OF INL. WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S HAS LEAD TO MINIMAL CINH REMAINING AHEAD OF THE SFC
TROUGH. ELY STORM MOTIONS SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO A
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO 750 MB WITH TEMP/DEWPT DEPRESSIONS
AROUND 35-40 DEG BENEATH MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG FAVORING
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT. LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR
DUE TO MODEST SWLY FLOW AROUND 30 KTS IN THE MID LEVELS BENEATH LOW
LEVEL SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH WILL LIMIT SVR HAIL THREAT.
DESPITE FOCUSED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING/WEAKENING LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL MITIGATE LARGER SCALE FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION BEYOND DIURNAL COOLING/02Z.

..CROSBIE.. 04/18/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS...

48989576 48049874 47809946 47339943 47109891 47559537
47799441 48859468 

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