[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 181910
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181909 
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-182115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0583
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 PM CDT MON APR 18 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ECENTRAL/SERN NM...TX/OK PANHANDLES...TX SOUTH
PLAINS/SWRN TX AND SWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 181909Z - 182115Z

ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SVR HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS MAY DEVELOP BY 21Z ALONG TWO SEPARATE DRYLINES...ONE OVER ERN
NM...AND THE OTHER EXTENDING FROM SWRN KS SWD INTO THE WRN TX SOUTH
PLAINS/SWRN TX. ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUED TO BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM CANNON AFB 88-D SHOWS A
DOUBLE DRYLINE STRUCTURE OVER ERN NM/FAR WRN TX. THE WRN MOST
/PRIMARY/ DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM EXTREME SERN CO...TO JUST EAST OF
CLAYTON SWWD TO GUADALUPE COUNTY...THEN SWD TO THE ERN FOOTHILLS OF
THE SACRAMENTO MTNS TO JUST WEST OF THE GUADALUPE MTNS. A SECONDARY
DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM A SFC LOW OVER FAR SERN CO SWWD TO CVS TO HOB
TO THE DAVIS MTNS. DRIER LOW LEVELS HAS LEAD TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY
OF AROUND 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE AHEAD OF THE WRN DRYLINE. THE AIRMASS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE SECONDARY /ERN MOST/ DRYLINE WAS MORE
UNSTABLE...WITH MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG OBSERVED. RECENT TRENDS
IN THE TCU AND WSM PROFILERS SUGGESTS A MID LEVEL /4-5 KM/ 30-35 KT
SPEED MAX WAS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
SSWLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF BOTH DRYLINES...AROUND 30 KTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 

WEAK ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE OVER WRN NM
COMBINED WITH SFC CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TWO
DRYLINES...AND WEAKENING CINH SUGGESTS AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF ONE OR BOTH DRYLINES BETWEEN
20-21Z. RECENT SAT IMAGERY CONFIRMS THIS POTENTIAL WITH CU
DEVELOPING ALONG BOTH DRYLINES OVER ERN NM AND TOWERING CU OVER
DAVIS MTNS. AHEAD OF WRN MOST DRYLINE ACROSS ECENTRAL/SERN NM...HIGH
BASED NATURE OF CONVECTION AND MORE LIMITED MLCAPE/HIGHER DCAPE
SUGGESTS THAT MARGINALLY SVR WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
THE SVR HAIL THREAT VERY MINIMAL. FARTHER EAST...AHEAD OF THE ERN
MOST DRYLINE FROM SWRN KS SWD ITO THE WRN TX SOUTH PLAINS/SWRN
TX....GREATER INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE
MORE LIKELY...ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. THIS AREA
WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW BY 21Z.

..CROSBIE.. 04/18/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...

30590413 32580454 34030427 35430331 36370256 37110200
37680090 37310036 34180089 30440243 

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