[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 182255
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182255 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-190100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0585
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0555 PM CDT MON APR 18 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS...OK/TX PANHANDLES/TX SOUTH PLAINS...SWRN
TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 160...

VALID 182255Z - 190100Z

GIVEN PLACEMENT OF ERN DRYLINE ALONG WRN PORTIONS OF WW 160 TX/NM
BORDER...AND POTENTIAL INCREASED CONVERGENCE AS ERN DRYLINE MERGES
WITH WRN DRYLINE MOVING ACROSS ECENTRAL NM...ALL AREAS OF WW 160
WILL REMAIN VALID ATTM.

CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS OVER THE TX SOUTH PLAINS/TX PANHANDLE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY WHILE MOVING ENEWD AROUND 15
KTS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW 160 THROUGH 01Z. SVR HAIL WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT WITH LEFT SPLITTING
STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE OTHER STRONG STORMS.
LATEST TRENDS IN THE SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAKENING CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS OVER FAR SWRN KS. RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR
IMAGERY SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. THEREFORE...THIS AREA MAY BE CLEARED
FROM WW 160 IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

FURTHER SOUTH...AN UPPER WAVE NOTED ON WV IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS NRN
MX MAY PROVIDE FOR SUFFICIENT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN SWRN TX/FAR SERN NM. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
INITIATION PRIOR TO 01Z WILL BE ALONG THE DRYLINE IN FAR SERN NM SWD
TO JUST EAST OF THE GUADALUPE MTNS WHERE BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVERGENCE. AT THE MOMENT...ONLY AN
ISOLATED/LIMITED AREA FOR POTENTIAL SVR TSTM INITIATION IS APPARENT
AND THUS ANOTHER WW SOUTH OF WW 160 IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..CROSBIE.. 04/18/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

37750166 33890313 33000419 31270381 31390270 33810250
33910107 37849944 38150137 

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