[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 181709
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181708 
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-181915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0582
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 PM CDT MON APR 18 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/NERN KS INTO WRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 181708Z - 181915Z

SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY
OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
FOR A WW ISSUANCE.

AS OF 1650Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED WELL-DEFINED DRY SLOT DEVELOPING NWD INTO ERN NEB...AHEAD
OF VORTICITY CENTER CURRENTLY SW OF GRI. STRONG INSOLATION WITHIN
THIS REGION COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND
RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG. CAP OBSERVED ON 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS WILL
CONCURRENTLY WEAKEN AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS WITH DEEP CONVECTION
BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY BETWEEN 19 AND 21Z.

FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AHEAD OF VORTICITY CENTER GENERALLY N OF I-80
EXHIBIT STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING WINDS...HOWEVER MID AND HIGH-LEVEL
FLOW IS LARGELY MERIDIONAL AND RELATIVELY WEAK. FARTHER S OVER SERN
NEB INTO NERN KS...CLOSER PROXIMITY TO BASE OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED 30-40 KT SPEED MAXIMUM WILL RESULT IN A KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE
REQUIRED PRIOR TO 19 OR 20Z.

..MEAD.. 04/18/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

40379762 41349787 41949777 42259715 42049615 41219577
40579560 39939554 39669590 39369660 39799760 

WWWW