[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 180240
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180240 
TXZ000-NMZ000-180415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0581
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0940 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME SERN NM...FAR W TX/TRANS-PECOS
REGION...SOUTH PLAINS OF W TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 159...

VALID 180240Z - 180415Z

ONLY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION REMAINING IN WW ATTM IS INVOF TX/NM
BORDER WNW INK...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ALONG/E OF DRYLINE...OVER ROOSEVELT
COUNTY NM.

PROBABLE HEAVY-PRECIP SUPERCELL THAT HAD MOVED SSEWD ACROSS NRN/ERN
EDDY COUNTY MERGED WITH INCREASING/PRE-EXISTING CONVECTION TO ITS
S...THEN RE-EMERGED AND IS MOVING SSEWD TOWARD LOVING COUNTY TX. 
ANOTHER APPARENT HP SUPERCELL HAS EVOLVED OVER S-CENTRAL EDDY
COUNTY...S CNM...AND WILL TURN RIGHTWARD ACROSS EXTREME NERN
CULBERSON AND NRN REEVES COUNTIES TX.  DAMAGING HAIL/GUSTS REMAIN
POSSIBLE.  MODIFIED VWP AND RUC HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST STORM-RELATIVE
LOW LEVEL FLOWS AS HIGH AS 40-50 KT...GIVEN 25-35 KT SLY LLJ. 
INCREASING SBCIN WILL RESULT FROM DIABATIC SFC COOLING OVER NEXT 2-3
HOURS...RESULTING IN ONGOING MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG BECOMING MORE
ELEVATED WITH TIME.  PRIND BULK OF WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS
SCHEDULED AT 4Z...BUT MAY BE EXTENDED LOCALLY IF NECESSARY.

..EDWARDS.. 04/18/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

30900262 30880553 34930556 34960260 

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