[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 180218
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180218 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-180345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0580
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0918 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SW KS...EXTREME NWRN OK...ERN OK
PANHANDLE...TX PANHANDLE...PART OF EXTREME E-CENTRAL NM.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 159...

VALID 180218Z - 180345Z

THAT PORTION OF WW ALONG/AHEAD OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINES...AS
OUTLINED BELOW...SHOULD BE MAINTAINED UNTIL TSTMS HAVE PASSED. 
ACTIVITY MAY BE E OF REMAINING PORTIONS WW BEFORE SCHEDULED 4Z
EXPIRATION...AT WHICH TIME REMAINING PORTIONS WW MAY BE CANCELED.

LINE OF NONSEVERE TSTMS IS MOVING EWD ACROSS PORTIONS SWRN KS...N OF
BOW ECHO THAT IS MOVING EWD ACROSS BEAVER COUNTY OK.  FARTHER
SW...ANOTHER LINE OF TSTMS FROM SRN ROBERTS COUNTY TX SWWD TO NEAR
CVS...HAS PRODUCED UP TO 2.75 INCH HAIL AROUND AMA.  BOW ECHO IN ERN
OK PANHANDLE OR A FEW CELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN SRN LINE MAY BRIEFLY
FLARE TO SEVERE LEVELS...HOWEVER OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE
DIMINISHING AS FOREGOING BOUNDARY LAYER DIABATICALLY COOLS AND
STABILIZES.  ELEVATED MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG...ROOTED NEAR BASE OF
30-35 KT LLJ...SHOULD MAINTAIN GEN TSTM POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF SW
KS SWWD ACROSS NWRN OK AND ERN PANHANDLE.  GIVEN GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND EXPECTED WITH CONVECTION FROM THIS POINT ONWARD...PRIND
ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE NECESSARY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.  MEANWHILE...WW CAN BE CLEARED BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED TSTM
LINES WHERE AIR MASS HAS BEEN STABILIZED BOTH BY CONVECTION AND BY
ONSET OF SFC RADIATIONAL COOLING.

..EDWARDS.. 04/18/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

34730150 34680452 38770333 38770019 38689959 38369926
37919915 37459908 37069923 36669946 36189969 35590010
35030049 34560086 34230131 33900191 33820258 34720262
34710217 34720155 38770018 

WWWW