[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 172329
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172328 
TXZ000-NMZ000-180130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0578
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0628 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN NM...FAR W TX AND TRANS-PECOS
AREA...WRN PORTIONS TX SOUTH PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 159...

VALID 172328Z - 180130Z

CONTINUE WW.  ISOLATED...APPARENTLY HEAVY-PRECIP SUPERCELL HAS
TURNED SHARPLY RIGHTWARD AND IS MOVING SEWD ACROSS NRN EDDY COUNTY
ATTM WITH DAMAGING HAIL/GUSTS LIKELY.  OTHER ACTIVITY -- IN BROKEN
BAND FROM NERN SOCORRO TO SRN QUAY COUNTIES...MAY MOVE SEWD ACROSS
SRN PORTIONS WW 158 INTO WW 159.  1.75 INCH HAIL REPORTED WITHIN
PAST HOUR BOTH FROM EDDY COUNTY SUPERCELL AND FROM TSTMS OVER DE
BACA COUNTY.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DRYLINE FROM ERN UNION COUNTY NM SSWWD TO
NEAR ROW THEN SSEWD TOWARD DAVIS MOUNTAINS.  AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE AHEAD OF DRYLINE -- INCLUDING ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS...OUTFLOW-DOMINANT/FORWARD-PROPAGATING TSTM CLUSTERS AND
BOWS.  MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG ESTIMATED IN PRE-STORM AIR
MASS...BASED ON RUC SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID
50S F. WELL MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER SHOULD AUGMENT POTENTIAL FOR HAIL
AND SEVERE GUSTS TO REACH SFC. PRESSURE FALLS AND RELATED SELY FLOW
ACROSS SERN NM WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW OVER
THAT AREA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN STRONG PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT OF STORM
MOTION.  DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONGEST BENEATH 35-45 KT
MIDLEVEL JET MAX ACROSS NRN PORTION OF WW.  RUC HODOGRAPH YIELDS 0-3
KM SRH 250-300 J/KG OVER SERN NM...DIMINISHING WITH NWD EXTENT AS
SFC FLOW BECOMES RELATIVELY VEERED.

..EDWARDS.. 04/17/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

30890267 30890554 34960556 34980256 

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