[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 172140
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172140 
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-172345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0577
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0440 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...FAR SWRN/SCENTRAL MN...FAR NWRN/NCENTRAL
IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 172140Z - 172345Z

ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA UNTIL ABOUT 02Z. DUE TO OVERALL
LIMITED SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT...THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED
ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM NEAR FSD EWD ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER. AIRMASS SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES
APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. DESPITE WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW /LESS THAN 20 KTS
 OBSERVED FROM 4-6 KM ON REGIONAL PROFILERS/...RELATIVELY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 7-7.5 DEG C/KM AND NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR STORMS. 
DIURNAL DECOUPLING SHOULD AID IN A DIMINISHING ISOLATED SVR THREAT
BEYOND 02Z.

..CROSBIE.. 04/17/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...

43709348 43809504 43909644 43629685 43389709 42849685
42739617 43109428 43229357 

WWWW