[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 171950
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171950 
NMZ000-172215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0576
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 171950Z - 172215Z

ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS CNTRL/SCNTRL
AND ERN NM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION HAS AGAIN INITIATED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NM WITH A
RAPID INCREASE IN CB DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING SINCE 19Z/1PM MDT.
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS CNTRL AND SCNTRL NM COUPLED WITH
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WERE CONTRIBUTING
TO WEAKLY CAPPED AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. WHILE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT WAS ON
SATURDAY...STRONGER WLY FLOW OF 25-30KT WAS SITUATED ACROSS CNTRL
AND SCNTRL NM...IN THE BASE OF MCV CIRCULATION LOCATED OVER CO. THIS
STRONGER FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ENHANCEMENT AND
SUPERCELL STRUCTURE. A COUPLE OF LONGER-LIVED CELLS COULD PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO GUSTY OUTFLOWS. GIVEN DEEP LAYER WLY
STEERING...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE
ERN/SERN PLAINS OF NM THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

..CARBIN.. 04/17/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

36180651 36570569 36710507 36710468 36500424 35970386
35720318 35020314 32950316 32340410 32580507 32660588
32960701 32970749 33430805 33910818 34660800 34950791
35340779 35870711 

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