[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 171926
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171925 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-172200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0575
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...SERN CO...WRN KS...OK/TX PNHDLS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 171925Z - 172200Z

ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS FROM ERN CO AND NERN NM...EWD
ACROSS WRN KS AND THE OK AND TX PNHDLS.

DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS EVIDENT IN RADAR RETURNS AND
ANALYSIS DATA ACROSS SERN CO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LONG-LOOP WV
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE IS PARTLY COMPOSED OF A RESIDUAL MCV
FROM COMPLEX OF STORMS OCCURRING OVER NM/CO YESTERDAY. POCKETS OF
STRONGER SURFACE HEATING AND MOISTENING AMONG THE BANDS OF ENHANCED
MESOSCALE ASCENT WERE AIDING IN GRADUAL AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS THE REGION. TSTM CELLS NOW APPEAR TO BE INCREASING AHEAD OF
THE CIRCULATION CENTER OVER CHEYENNE COUNTY CO...AS WELL AS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF LAS ANIMAS COUNTY.

DIURNAL INCREASE IN INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH BACKGROUND ASCENT FROM
THE MCV WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW OF 15-20KT...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS MARGINAL. SLIGHTLY STRONGER
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DOES EXIST SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER...OVER
PARTS OF THE TX PNHDL.

BACKGROUND CIRCULATION COULD ACT TO ENHANCE OVERALL STORM
ORGANIZATION AS ACTIVITY INCREASES MODESTLY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK NON-SUPERCELL
TORNADO APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS. IN
ADDITION...OUTFLOW DOMINANT CONVECTION SPREADING EAST FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM/CO WILL ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
FROM UNION COUNTY NM TO BACA AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES IN CO...WHERE
STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS NOW OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE STORMS.

..CARBIN.. 04/17/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

37930434 37130450 35990357 35750211 35410073 36539982
37329956 37829954 38349964 39209986 39840075 39910143
39990226 39840323 39290337 38470353 

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