[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 071701
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071700 
FLZ000-GAZ000-071900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0519
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT THU APR 07 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN FL...SERN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 137...

VALID 071700Z - 071900Z

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS ADVANCED ACROSS MOST OF GA COAST...WHILE TSTMS
OVER LAND HAVE WEAKENED ALONG/BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS GA AND
NRN FL.  HOWEVER...POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER FL...AS WELL AS SEVERE TSTMS MOVING
INLAND W COAST...AS FOREGOING SFC AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DIABATICALLY
DESTABILIZE.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS YIELD 800-1200 J/KG
MLCAPE...WHICH IS MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN SEVERE
POTENTIAL IN THIS REGIME GIVEN 75-150 J/KG 0-1 KM SRH AND 35-45 KT
0-6 KM SHEAR EVIDENT IN PRE-STORM VWP. BOW ECHO -- EVIDENT AT 17Z
ABOUT 90 NM ENE TPA OVER OPEN GULF WATERS -- MAY MOVE ONSHORE
PORTIONS CITRUS/HERNANDO/LEVY COUNTIES IN 19-20Z TIME FRAME WITH
ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE RISK...THEN INLAND TOWARD OCF BY ABOUT 21Z.

..EDWARDS.. 04/07/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

27388311 30308310 31688106 28798105 

WWWW