[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 071646
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071646 
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-071845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0518
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 AM CDT THU APR 07 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN SC...CENTRAL/ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 071646Z - 071845Z

SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL FCST TO INCREASE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN OF CAROLINAS...ALONG AND E OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM PRE-EXISTING/NONSEVERE CONVECTION.  MAIN THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING GUSTS...ISOLATED HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.  WW MAY BE
REQUIRED.

AIR MASS IS DESTABILIZING AND SBCINH DIMINISHING RAPIDLY E OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WAS ANALYZED ALONG A LINE FROM GSO...30 W
SOP...30 SW FLO...NBC...AS OF 1630Z.  POTENTIAL EXIST FOR
REINTENSIFICATION AND BOW ECHO DEVELOPMENT WITHIN LINE...AS WELL AS
FORMATION OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWS TO ITS E WHERE DEEPENING TCU AND
SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT ATTM IN VIS/REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS.  VERTICAL
WIND PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH 35-40 KT 0-6
KM AGL SHEAR.  ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT DEVIATE RIGHTWARD -- MOVING
NE TO ENE -- MAY ROTATE AMIDST 0-1 KM SRH 100-150 J/KG...BASED ON
PRE-STORM VWP AND RUC FCST HODOGRAPHS. AS HEATING CONTINUES...DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 DEG F RANGE.  ASSOCIATED
DEEPER MIXING OF SUBCLOUD LAYER WILL AUGMENT POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG-SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS TO REACH SFC.

..EDWARDS.. 04/07/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...

33478014 34758043 35498008 36298004 36587874 36467712
35257718 34297768 33487837 32957908 32388049 

WWWW