[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 072019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072018 
FLZ000-GAZ000-072145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0520
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 PM CDT THU APR 07 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 137...

VALID 072018Z - 072145Z

MAINTAIN WW ALONG/AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND -- MOVING EWD ACROSS
ST JOHNS/PUTNAM/MARION/CITRUS COUNTIES ATTM WITH A FEW EMBEDDED BOW
ECHOES.  ADDITIONAL OR REPLACEMENT WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN NEXT
HOUR OR TWO THAT WOULD COVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN FL S OF WW 137.

NRN FL CONVECTIVE BAND GENERALLY IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS NRN FL IN
RESPONSE TO COMBINATION OF MOIST ADVECTION IN INFLOW LAYER...AND
STRONG HEATING NOW NEAR DIURNAL PEAK.  ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED RUC
SOUNDINGS YIELD 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE...WHICH WILL HOLD STEADY IN
PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING.  SOME SFC VEERING HAS DIMINISHED DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR...WITH 0-6 KM VALUES NOW IN 30-35 KT RANGE...HOWEVER
HODOGRAPHS REMAIN LARGE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT BOWS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS...GIVEN ROUGHLY 30 DEG OR MORE RIGHTWARD DEVIANCE IN
MOTION.  0-1 KM SRH UP TO 150-200 J/KG RANGE REMAIN POSSIBLE.

SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER FL W COAST -- FROM TBW AREA SWD -- AND OVER
INLAND SRN/CENTRAL FL MAY BE INCREASING.  VERTICAL SHEAR AND
BUOYANCY PROFILES ARE SIMILARLY FAVORABLE OVER THOSE AREAS. 
DISCRETE DEEP CONVECTIVE TOWERS ARE EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY OVER
KISSIMMEE VALLEY N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND INVOF SEA BREEZE
INTERSECTION WITH HORIZONTAL ROLLS SW OF THAT LAKE.  COMPLEX OF
TSTMS AROUND 100 WSW SRQ -- AS OF 20Z -- ALSO MAY AFFECT W COAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

..EDWARDS.. 04/07/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

28358067 27948049 27108025 26388082 25968133 25998180
26798229 26998271 27388311 30308310 31688106 28798105 

WWWW