[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 071604
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071603 
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-071800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0517
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 AM CDT THU APR 07 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NWRN GA...E-CENTRAL THROUGH
N-CENTRAL/NERN AL...MIDDLE/SERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 071603Z - 071800Z

TSTMS FCST TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THIS REGION
OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL HAIL AND
STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS.  SMALL/BRIEF TORNADOES ALSO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.  AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

AMIDST CLOUD BREAKS...DIABATIC HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND RAPIDLY DIMINISHING CINH ACROSS THIS
REGION.  MODIFIED FFC RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PARCELS
SHOULD BE SFC BASED ATTM.  MLCAPES SHOULD RISE INTO 500-1000 J/KG
RANGE...AS SFC TEMPS RISE THROUGH MID 60S/LOWER 70S F WITH DEW
POINTS GENERALLY UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.  DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILES INCREASE WITH DISTANCE FROM DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE --
NOW EVIDENT IN SFC ANALYSIS...REFLECTIVITY LOOPS AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER WRN TN.  THIS SHEAR PATTERN IS EVIDENT IN CURRENT VWP
DATA.  FCST HODOGRAPHS FROM RUC ALSO EXPAND WITH SEWD EXTENT OVER
REGION...WITH 0-1 KM SRH LESS THAN 50 J/KG IN MID TN BUT EXCEEDING
200 J/KG AROUND ATL...IN 17-19Z TIME FRAME.  THEREFORE...
PROBABILITY OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE GREATER OVER GA AND
ADJACENT AL BORDER PORTION OF AREA THAN N-CENTRAL AL OR MIDDLE TN. 
NEGATIVE SFC THETAE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT -- NOW
MOVING EWD ACROSS EXTREME WRN AL -- SHOULD REDUCE SEVERE POTENTIAL
FROM W-E ACROSS NRN AL THIS AFTERNOON.

..EDWARDS.. 04/07/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

33068600 34068680 34558698 35938767 36348622 36068556
34918428 33918394 33008437 32468496 32488576 

WWWW