[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 071253
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071252 
FLZ000-071445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0516
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT THU APR 07 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN FL PANHANDLE / NRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 071252Z - 071445Z

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE E CENTRAL AND
NERN GULF OF MEXICO NNEWD ACROSS THE ERN FL PANHANDLE INTO E CENTRAL
AND SERN GA.  ALONG WITH ONGOING THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...LIMITED
SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FL COASTAL BEND AND
EVENTUALLY INTO N FL.

MODERATELY-STRONG / VEERING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS REVEALED BY
AREA VWPS AND AREA 12Z RAOBS.  THOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS
LIMITED...PERSISTENT TRAINING OF STORMS CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FL PANHANDLE AND INTO GA.

CONVECTION HAS SHOWN A SLIGHT EWD ACCELERATION OVER THE PAST 1-2
HOURS...INCLUDING PERSISTENT / LARGE SUPERCELL JUST SW OF AAF
/APALACHICOLA FL/.  INLAND AIRMASS REMAINS ONLY MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE...AND UPPER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ERN GULF CONVECTION
SHOULD SPREAD EWD LIMITING DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS N FL. 
NONETHELESS...WITH STORMS LIKELY MOVING ONSHORE OVER COASTAL NWRN FL
OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO SHOULD EXIST.

IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE...THOUGH ONGOING
THREAT MAY BE MITIGATED TO SOME EXTENT BY SOMEWHAT MORE RAPID EWD
MOTION OF CONVECTIVE LINE EXHIBITED RECENTLY.

..GOSS.. 04/07/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

30188405 30318359 30408281 30108234 29478212 28688262
29128279 29198309 29708348 29978374 29668497 

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