[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 070853
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070853 
FLZ000-071100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0515
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT THU APR 07 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN FL PANHANDLE / N FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 070853Z - 071100Z

SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL
PANHANDLE...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST.  

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES MOIST /MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS/
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE ERN GULF...WHICH CONTINUES ADVECTING NWD
AHEAD OF PERSISTENT NNE-SSW CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NRN GA
INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUGGEST ONLY LIMITED
INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF SRN GA AND INTO N FL ABOVE A
SLIGHTLY-STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.  HOWEVER...MORE MOIST / UNSTABLE
LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IS INDICATED CLOSER TO THE COAST.  

LATEST AREA VWPS SHOW FAVORABLY-STRONG / VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND
PROFILES -- WITH FLOW STRONGER THAN FORECAST BY ETA / RUC PFCS. 
THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT FOR ROTATING STORMS IS
INCREASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL / ERN FL PANHANDLE COAST...AND MAY
EXPAND ENEWD INTO PARTS OF N FL LATER THIS MORNING.

..GOSS.. 04/07/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

30508484 30588385 30468321 30288295 29708340 30118402
30098433 29608505 29668530 29848537 

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