[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 011720
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011720 
ALZ000-MSZ000-011915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0477
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CST FRI APR 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MS THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 011720Z - 011915Z

SURFACE BASED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF ERN MS/WRN AL AND CONTINUE EWD INTO THE
EVENING. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

A NEAR STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN AL THEN SWWD AS A
COLD FRONT THROUGH CNTRL/WRN MS. SURFACE HEATING IN THE WAKE OF
EARLIER MCS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
DESTABILIZATION FROM ERN MS THROUGH AL. THE RICHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS BEEN SHIFTED OFFSHORE S OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...BUT
RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN
RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES. FORCING FOR ASCENT
ALONG FRONT AND AHEAD OF UPPER SPEED MAX/VORTICITY CENTER WILL
SPREAD EWD INTO THE DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND SHOULD CONTRIBUTE
TO SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH AL AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS.
INITIAL STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER... STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO LINES WITH
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES. OTHER MORE PERSISTENT
DISCRETE STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

..DIAL.. 04/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

32049004 33998845 34878660 33988602 32048722 31148879 

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