[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 280659
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280659 
NCZ000-280900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2273
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 AM CDT TUE SEP 28 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 845...

VALID 280659Z - 280900Z

ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE AT LEAST ANOTHER 2 TO 3 HOURS
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.  CURRENT WW...WHICH RUNS TIL
08Z...APPEARS TO COVER MUCH OF PRIMARY THREAT...AND MAY BE ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS.

CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF JEANNE HAS LIFTED
NORTH OF AUGUSTA INTO WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.  40 TO 45 KT SOUTHERLY
LOW- LEVEL JET EAST OF CIRCULATION CENTER NOW EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WHERE SURFACE FLOW HAS
MAINTAINED STRONGER EASTERLY COMPONENT...AND SHEAR PROFILES STILL
APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES.  

2 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS HAVE INCREASED DURING THE PAST HOUR OR
TWO ACROSS THE FAYETTEVILLE AREA...WHERE CONVECTIVE CELLS EMBEDDED
WITHIN NARROW PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND APPEAR TO BE STRENGTHENING IN
ENVIRONMENT WITH AT LEAST WEAK CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY.  THIS BAND
APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL ROTATE
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN VIRGINIA/NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COAST
THROUGH 12-15Z.  

INDIVIDUAL CELLS NEAR FAYETTEVILLE WILL DEVELOP NORTH NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE RALEIGH AREA THROUGH 08-09Z...AND APPEAR PRIMARY THREAT
FOR ISOLATED TORNADIC ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING.

..KERR.. 09/28/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...

35227937 35687974 36077937 36167876 35917794 35397783
35047782 34787817 34977906 

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