[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 281256
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281256 
DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-281500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2274
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 AM CDT TUE SEP 28 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NC/SE VA/SRN DELMARVA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 281256Z - 281500Z

RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. NEED FOR WW IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

WEAKENING SURFACE LOW IS NOW NORTHWEST OF CHARLOTTE NC...AND WILL
BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS  NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...HOWEVER...HAS SHIFTED WELL IN ADVANCE OF
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND IS NOW RAPIDLY APPROACHING SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA/NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS. 

UNSTABLE TROPICAL-TYPE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES...HAS BECOME CONFINED TO NARROW
CORRIDOR ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...FROM NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF
NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA.  AS THIS
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS NEXT FEW HOURS...INCREASING SURFACE-BASED
BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO IN MORE
VIGOROUS CELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND.  THIS BAND
LIKELY WILL SHIFT OFF COASTAL AREAS DURING THE 15-18Z TIME
FRAME...WITH SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.

..KERR.. 09/28/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...

35077628 36117628 37287626 38007648 38827583 38937522
38917487 

WWWW