[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 261513
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261513 
FLZ000-GAZ000-261715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2262
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 AM CDT SUN SEP 26 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN/NRN FL...SERN GA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 840...

VALID 261513Z - 261715Z

AS SFC HEATING CONTINUES AROUND PERIPHERY OF CYCLONE THROUGHOUT
DAYLIGHT HOURS...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME MORE BUOYANT AND SOME OF
THIS AIR SHOULD BE DRAWN INTO NERN PORTION OF JEANNE.  THEREFORE
EXPECT OVERALL SUPERCELL POTENTIAL TO INCREASE.  THIS INCLUDES AIR
MASS NOW OVER SERN GA...WHERE MOIST ADVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH
INCREASING ELY/DECREASING NLY FLOW COMPONENT...AND WHERE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY WITH TIME.

IN NEAR TERM AN AREA OF MAXIMIZED RISK IS EVIDENT -- ACROSS PORTIONS
VOLUSIA/FLAGLER/ST. JOHNS COUNTIES THROUGH AT LEAST 17Z...SPREADING
OVER CLAY/PUTNAM/DUVAL/ALACHUA/UNION/BRADFORD/ BAKER COUNTIES
THROUGH 18Z AND BEYOND.  AS OF 15Z CENTER OF JEANNE IS OVER POLK
COUNTY.  SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS PRONOUNCED SFC TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE
EXTENDING FROM THERE ENEWD OVER CAPE CANAVERAL TO POSITION
APPROXIMATELY 30 NM N OF BUOY 41010 IN ATLANTIC.  EXPECT THIS TROUGH
TO SHIFT NWWD IN STEP WITH CENTER OF TROPICAL CYCLONE. DRYING
EVIDENT IN REFLECTIVITY/SATELLITE LOOPS AND PERIPHERAL 12Z RAOBS IS
EXPECTED TO WRAP INTO MORE OF ERN SEMICIRCLE OF CIRCULATION...AIDING
IN DIURNAL HEATING.  TROUGH THEN MAY BECOME WEAK BAROCLINIC
ZONE...AND IN ANY EVENT SHOULD ENHANCE TORNADO POTENTIAL BOTH
1. WHERE IT INTERSECTS OUTER BAND NOW EXTENDING SEWD FROM DAB AND
2. WHERE ANY DISCRETE CELLS ON EITHER SIDE OF BAND MAY CROSS IT.

REF LATEST NHC ADVISORIES -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC -- FOR
LATEST TROPICAL WATCHES/WARNINGS AND TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE ON
JEANNE.

..EDWARDS.. 09/26/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

27638019 27648262 31278310 31278060 

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