[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 261911
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261911 
FLZ000-GAZ000-SCZ000-262115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2263
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN/NRN FL AND SRN GA...EXTREME SRN SC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 840...

VALID 261911Z - 262115Z

TORNADO THREAT REMAINS MAXIMIZED ALONG NE COAST OF FL -- ROUGHLY
FROM FLAGLER COUNTY THRU JAX AREA...AND SHOULD SHIFT INLAND TOWARD
N-CENTRAL PENINSULA AND SERN GA DURING REMAINDER AFTERNOON/EVENING. 
POSSIBLE TORNADO REPORTED ST JOHNS COUNTY FL PAST HALF HOUR. 
ALSO...SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH
AFTERNOON N OF PRESENT WW...ACROSS PORTIONS SERN/S-CENTRAL GA AND
PERHAPS EXTREME SRN SC.  WW MAY NEED TO BE SHIFTED NWD AS
REPLACEMENT BEFORE SCHEDULED 21Z EXPIRATION OF CURRENT WW 840.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PREVIOUS TROUGH EXTENDING ENEWD FROM CYCLONE
CENTER PAST CAPE CANAVERAL IS WEAKENING...AND SO IS ASSOCIATED
STREAMLINE CONFLUENCE AS FLOW TO ITS N VEERS SLIGHTLY. HODOGRAPHS
REMAIN FAVORABLE ACROSS E-CENTRAL/NE FL COAST. VWP AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 0-1 KM SRH 300-400 J/KG WITHIN 50-150 NM RADIUS
FROM CENTER OVER NE QUADRANT...DIMINISHING INWARD AND OUTWARD FROM
THERE. BUOYANCY REMAINS MARGINAL WITH MLCAPES 200-800 J/KG -- BASED
ON OBSERVED AND MODIFIED 18Z JAX RAOB. SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN MAXIMIZED IN OUTER BAND NOW EXTENDING FROM ST JOHNS
COUNTY SEWD OVER ATLANTIC.

EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW -- ESPECIALLY JUST ABOVE SFC -- TO VEER
GRADUALLY FROM NE TO E ACROSS SRN GA AND EXTREME SRN SC...IN
RESPONSE TO ISALLOBARIC TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH NWWD MOVEMENT OF
JEANNE.  CONFLUENCE LINE AND WEAK TROUGH NOW JUST OFFSHORE NRN
PORTION GA COAST AND SRN SC COAST MAY MOVE INLAND AS
WELL...PROVIDING ENHANCED LIFT/SHEAR/VORTICITY FOR RELATIVELY
DISCRETE CELLS IN NRN PERIPHERY OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
ENVELOPE.

REF LATEST NHC ADVISORIES -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC -- FOR
LATEST TROPICAL WATCHES/WARNINGS AND TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE ON
JEANNE.

..EDWARDS.. 09/26/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...FFC...

27638019 27648262 31278310 31278060 

31288309 32008254 32308230 32598157 32558047 32568008
32318046 31878071 31288060 

WWWW