[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 260048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260048 
FLZ000-260245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2259
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NE THROUGH SE FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 838...

VALID 260048Z - 260245Z

THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING AS JEANNE NEARS THE COAST. BEST THREAT NEXT FEW HOURS MAY BE
OVER E CNTRL FL FROM NEAR FORT PIERCE NWD TO DAYTONA BEACH.

CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH EMBEDDED DISCRETE CELLS CONTINUE MOVING
RAPIDLY SWWD NEAR 50 KT OVER MUCH OF ERN FL. BASED ON THE CURRENT
STORM MOTIONS AND VWP DATA FROM MELBOURNE...0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY IS ON THE ORDER OF 300 M2/S2 WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 48 KT.
HOWEVER...00Z SOUNDING FROM MIAMI AND LACK OF LIGHTNING WITHIN THE
CONVECTIVE BANDS SUGGESTS THE BUOYANCY IS VERY WEAK RELATIVE TO THE
AMOUNT OF SHEAR...AND THIS MAY SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR.
NEVERTHELESS...SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS JEANNE MOVES INLAND.

..DIAL.. 09/26/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

26487980 26388124 27478155 29708205 29458096 

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