[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 251844
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251843 
FLZ000-252115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2258
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL -- TC TORNADOES 

VALID 251843Z - 252115Z

SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE GRADUALLY FOR
REMAINDER AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS ERN FL...SPREADING SLOWLY INLAND
FROM COAST AS FAVORABLY SHEARED SECTOR OF HURRICANE JEANNE IMPINGES
ON AREA.  WW IS ANTICIPATED.

REGIONAL VWP INDICATE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS AND TENDENCY FOR
ENLARGING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH APCH OF JEANNE.  KINEMATIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD BECOME OPTIMIZED FOR SUPERCELLS OVER
MIDDLE-OUTER PORTION OF CIRCULATION...NNW-NE OF CENTER.  IN THAT
SECTOR LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE GREATEST WITH 0-1 KM SRH
IN 250-450 J/KG RANGE...AND SBCAPES 200-800 J/KG.  TORNADO POTENTIAL
WILL BE GREATEST WITH SUSTAINED/DISCRETE CELLS SUCH AS THOSE EVIDENT
ATTM WELL OFFSHORE DAB-MLB CORRIDOR...AS THAT ACTIVITY PIVOTS
LANDWARD WITH INCREASING FREQUENCY OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  TORNADO
PROBABILITIES SHOULD DECREASE FARTHER N AS STABLE LAYER ALOFT --
EVIDENT IN 18Z JAX RAOB -- LIMITS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...AND AS SHEAR
WEAKENS. 

REF NHC FCSTS -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC -- FOR LATEST TROPICAL
WATCHES/WARNINGS...AS WELL AS TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE FOR THIS
HURRICANE.

..EDWARDS.. 09/25/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

27358023 27468086 27788130 28268162 29118183 29688169
30168135 

WWWW