[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 251811
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251811 
NMZ000-AZZ000-252045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2257
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SWRN NM...SMALL PART OF SERN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 251811Z - 252045Z

TSTMS ARE FCST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS AREA
FROM SRN-MOST APACHE COUNTY AZ NEWD TOWARD CIBOLA COUNTY NM...AND
SEWD TO RIO GRANDE VALLEY REGION BETWEEN VALENCIA AND DONA ANA
COUNTIES NM.  MOST VIGOROUS CELLS MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL
AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING GUSTS...HOWEVER THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
EVENT SHOULD REMAIN TOO LOW TO WARRANT WW.

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN NM AND OVER
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF AZ NEAR NM BORDER.  SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEW POINTS
RANGING FROM UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S...ELEVATION DEPENDENT.  AIR MASS
OVER THIS REGION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AS STRONG INSOLATION
COMBINES WITH THAT MOISTURE...BENEATH NEARLY 8-8.5 DEG C/KM
LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...TO YIELD MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG. 
DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC WIND PROFILES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK WITH FLOW
GENERALLY AOB 15 KT THROUGH MOST OF SFC-400 MB LAYER...BASED ON
TUS/HDX VWP AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS.  HOWEVER...40-60 KT ANVIL LEVEL
FLOW AND CONSIDERABLE VEERING OF BOUNDARY LAYER WIND DIRECTIONS IN
SOME LOCALES SHOULD AID WITH STORM-SCALE UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. 
EXTREMELY DEVIANT RIGHTWARD MOTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SUCH A WEAK
AMBIENT FLOW REGIME...AND BRIEF/MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MIGHT
OCCUR WITH A FEW TSTMS.

..EDWARDS.. 09/25/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...

31760817 32590869 33590922 33820965 34051004 34161014
34311012 34371001 35210806 35070741 34730664 34340641
31790673 

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