[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 241945
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241945 
NMZ000-242215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2256
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 PM CDT FRI SEP 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 241945Z - 242215Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTHEN OVER NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS ERN NM...GENERALLY E OF LINE FROM GDP...
SRR...LVS...20 NW RTN. ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.  A FEW STORMS MAY ROTATE FOR SHORT
PERIOD BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE/SUPERCELL POTENTIAL IS LOW AND QUITE
CONDITIONAL ON STORM-SCALE PROCESSES.  PRIND WW WILL NOT BE
REQUIRED.

VIS AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CB OVER
MOUNTAINS ALONG W PERIPHERY OF DISCUSSION AREA.  AIR MASS FARTHER E
ACROSS PECOS VALLEY AND HIGH PLAINS HAS BEEN SLOW TO HEAT DIURNALLY
BECAUSE OF LOW CLOUD COVER...HOWEVER RAPID DESTABILIZATION OF
BOUNDARY LAYER IS UNDERWAY ATTM.  SFC DEW POINTS MID 50S TO LOW 60S
F SHOULD REMAIN COMMON ACROSS REGION FROM ABOUT 50 MILES E OF
AFOREMENTIONED LINE EWD TO TX BORDER...AFTER ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF
INSOLATION/MIXING.  WITH SUCH MOISTURE UNDERLYING 7-8 DEG C/KM
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT MLCAPES RANGING FROM AROUND 800 J/KG N
OF I-40 NERN NM TO AROUND 1700 J/KG E OF GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW AND SHEAR APPEARS WEAK OVERALL BASED ON PROFILER
DATA.  HOWEVER...RUC FCST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE THAT STRONGLY DEVIANT
STORM MOTIONS -- TO SE OR S AT 10-20 KT -- YIELD MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SRH FOR SUPERCELLS EXPECIALLY S OF I-40. 
IF REALIZED ON STORM SCALE THIS COULD ENHANCE HAIL CAPACITY OF
UPDRAFTS AND POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AT SFC.  WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYERS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GUST STRENGTH IN DOWNDRAFTS.

..EDWARDS.. 09/24/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

32050470 32580499 32950530 32960551 33140551 33500548
33890543 34400519 34950510 35160524 35490537 35870540
36200506 36490487 36860493 36970466 36980407 36950354
36880328 36520310 35590318 33790356 32110339 

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