[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 232027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232026 
MIZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-232230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2255
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0326 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MN/NWRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 232026Z - 232230Z

...ISOLD TSTM WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE NEXT 1-3 HOURS ACROSS MN
ARROWHEAD AND PORTIONS NWRN WI...

LATEST ANALYSIS PLACES SFC LOW ABOUT 30 MILES EAST OF
ABERDEEN...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING NE TO FAR/30 W INL. AN AXIS OF
SFC INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTING
SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000-1500 J/KG. VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
IN PLACE WITH LATEST WOODLAKE MN PROFILER OBSERVING 50-60 KT AT 1KM
WITHIN THE LAST 2 HOURS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 35-40 KT
RANGE...ALTHOUGH EARLIER A 56 KT GUST OCCURRED AT ANE ON THE N SIDE
OF THE TWIN CITIES. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THIS NARROW BAND OF LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 2-3
HOURS...AND WILL HAVE STRONG/GUSTY TSTM WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY WITH
SOME WIND DAMAGE.

..TAYLOR.. 09/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...FGF...

45899111 46689341 47659561 48609479 48699351 48439160
47789037 46219026 45889075 

WWWW