[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 180914
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180910 
MAZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-181115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2245
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0410 AM CDT SAT SEP 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA/NJ/SE NY

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 180910Z - 181115Z

THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH THE REMNANTS OF IVAN WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS.

THE REMNANTS OF IVAN CONSISTS OF A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF PA EXTENDING NNEWD INTO ERN NY AND WRN
NJ. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CONFINED TO THE ERN PART OF THE
RAIN MAINLY ACROSS SE PA AND NRN NJ. THIS AREA HAS ACCESS TO THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF ABOUT OF 1000 J/KG WHICH
WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. IN
ADDITION...THE MTNS RUN SW TO NE AND THIS ALONG WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALIGNED IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS THE MTNS ARE ENHANCING
LIFT ACROSS SE PA AND SE NY. ALTHOUGH DRYER AIR ON THE BACK EDGE
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IS ERODING THE RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST...THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS WILL
KEEP HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN PLACE
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
EXIT LATER THIS MORNING.

..BROYLES.. 09/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

41557617 42557451 42937335 42797237 42187216 41597275
40967439 39937532 39617633 40137718 40647703 

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