[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 181918
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181914 
AZZ000-CAZ000-182045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2246
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 PM CDT SAT SEP 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 181914Z - 182045Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY NEXT FEW
HOURS OVER WRN AZ. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER WRN AZ AND
SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. STRONG
SURFACE HEATING AND AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH IS AIDING
INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND S OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WHERE
MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG IS LIKELY. WEAK CAP AND DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING OF THE TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALSO LIKELY INCREASE INTO THE
EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EWD ALONG THE W
COAST. GREATER THREAT FOR HAIL APPEARS TO BE OVER THE SWRN PART OF
AZ WHERE CAPE IS STRONGER. GREATER THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND MAY BE
OVER THE NWRN PORTION WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
SPREADS ARE HIGHER.

..DIAL.. 09/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

34571177 32091176 32091322 32891468 35911401 36931302
36711125 

WWWW