[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 180643
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180639 
NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-180845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2244
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0139 AM CDT SAT SEP 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...MD/DE/NJ/SE PA/FAR SE NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 180639Z - 180845Z

AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED
ACROSS THE NERN US WITH RAINBANDS EXTENDING SWD FROM THE CIRCULATION
ACROSS MD...DE AND NJ. WITHIN THE BANDS...SOME CELLULAR ACTIVITY IS
PRESENT AND THESE STORMS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO ROTATE AS THEY MOVE
NWD ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOOPED HODOGRAPHS
WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL VEERING. IN ADDITION SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S F ARE CREATING LCL HEIGHTS BELOW 500 METERS. THE
LOW LCLS AND STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER FAR ERN PA WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
MINI-SUPERCELLS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL ACCOMPANY ANY
ROTATING STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN VERY ISOLATED AND SHOULD DIMINISH SOME AS INSTABILITY
DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK.

..BROYLES.. 09/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

38417507 39157662 41237524 41427448 40937344 40287336 

WWWW