[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 180622
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180618 
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-180815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2243
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0118 AM CDT SAT SEP 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN MO/FAR SRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 180618Z - 180815Z

AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
THE CONVECTION SPREADS VERY SLOWLY SSEWD ACROSS NWRN MO. PERIODS OF
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE LIKELY DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
STORMS.

STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS NW MO NEAR THE NOSE OF
A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. THE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET AND IS ELEVATED IN NATURE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH THE
INSTABILITY LOCATED ABOVE THE 700 MB LAYER. SFC-6 KM VALUES ARE
AROUND 30 KT AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN A SEVERE THREAT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL
CONSIDERING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP. THE INSTABILITY
SHOULD DECREASE SOME THROUGH DAYBREAK AND THIS SHOULD HELP THE
SEVERE THREAT TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS THE CONVECTION
MOVES/DEVELOPS SLOWLY SSEWD. THE STORMS MAY ALSO BACKBUILD ALONG THE
ISENTROPIC UPLIFT ZONE FARTHER NNW INTO IA. THE SETUP WILL THEREFORE
FAVOR LITTLE OVERALL MOTION OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...AND MAY YIELD
EXTENDED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IN SOME AREAS.

..BROYLES.. 09/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...DMX...EAX...

39919491 40989480 41199405 41149316 40899301 39989279
38669278 38049339 38169455 38779477 

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