[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 180330
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180327 
MOZ000-KSZ000-180530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2242
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN KS AND NRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 180327Z - 180530Z

ISOLD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER TSTMS ACROSS
NERN KS AND NRN MO THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  A WW IS NOT
EXPECTED.

PLAN VIEW OF PROFILER DATA SUGGESTS THAT A 40 KT SWLY LLJ HAS
EVOLVED OVER NRN OK AND SRN KS THIS EVENING...BLOWING NORMAL TO AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM ERN KS TO CNTRL MO.  ENHANCED WARM
ADVECTION ATOP THE RESIDUAL COLD POOL HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR
INCREASING TSTMS FROM THE ST. JOSEPH MO AREA EWD INTO NRN MO.  THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS NRN AND PARTS OF CNTRL MO OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

PARCELS FEEDING THE STORMS LIKELY ORIGINATE IN A POOL OF 2500 J/KG
MUCAPE LOCATED UPSTREAM ACROSS CNTRL KS.  THE EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...HOWEVER...IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...30 KTS OR LESS. 
THUS...WHILE ISOLD TSTMS MAY BRIEFLY EXHIBIT ROTATION...MOSTLY
MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.  MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAILSTONES MAY OCCUR IN ISOLD STORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..RACY.. 09/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...

40489443 39689245 38909209 38119299 38599478 39169572
40049525 

WWWW