[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 170555
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170551 
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-170715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2229
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004

AREAS AFFECTED......WRN SC/WRN NC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 831...

VALID 170551Z - 170715Z

AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WRN SC AND WRN NC
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS FAR ERN TN. VAD
WIND PROFILES EAST OF THE CENTER CURRENTLY SHOW STRONGLY VEERED
LOW-LEVEL WINDS MAINLY ACROSS WRN SC AND WRN NC WHERE RAINBANDS ARE
ONGOING. IN ADDITION...0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES RANGE FROM 40 TO 50 KT
AND THIS ALONG WITH THE VEERING PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
MINI-SUPERCELLS. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NEWD INTO LOWER INSTABILITY AND
THIS COMBINED WITH DECREASING MLCAPE VALUES AS SFC TEMPS FALL WILL
LIMIT THE TORNADO POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. STILL...A FEW TORNADOES WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MINI-SUPERCELLS CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE

..BROYLES.. 09/17/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...CAE...GSP...

33528218 35318221 35818215 36148169 36168108 35688076
34538076 33508108 

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