[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 171330
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171326 
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-171530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2230
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0826 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NE SC...CNTRL AND ERN NC INTO SRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 171326Z - 171530Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION ACROSS
PARTS OF NE SC...CNTRL INTO SERN NC THROUGH S CNTRL VA. A TORNADO
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED 14Z.

THIS MORNING THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF IVAN WERE OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS MOVING SLOWLY NEWD. E OF THE CENTER...STORMS CONTINUE
DEVELOPING WITHIN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BANDS FROM SC THROUGH PARTS
OF CNTRL NC AND INTO SW VA. THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE BAND IS
DEVELOPING FROM W CNTRL NC INTO N CNTRL SC ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE
A ZONE OF ENHANCED ASCENT NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF A PRONOUNCED
MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY INTRUSION. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ARE FROM THE
HIGH THETA-E BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF STREAM AND LATEST
SATELLITE DATA ALSO SHOW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SPREADING NWD. THE 12Z
GREENSBORO RAOB SHOWED MODERATE INSTABILITY. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MLCAPE FROM
1500 TO 2000 J/KG POSSIBLE. SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN STRONG IN THIS
REGION WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR TO 30 KT AND 0-6 KM SHEAR TO 40 KT. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITH
INCREASING THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.

..DIAL.. 09/17/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

35368025 36598055 37497943 37167796 34717833 33817982 

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