[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 170346
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170342 
SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-170545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2228
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1042 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA...CNTRL/UPSTATE SC...SWRN NC...EXTREME NRN
FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 831...

VALID 170342Z - 170545Z

THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR BRIEF TORNADOES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WILL EXIST ACROSS EXTREME NERN GA AND UPSTATE SC.  A LOWER
THREAT FOR ISOLD TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE SWD ACROSS ERN GA INTO
EXTREME NRN FL.  TORNADO WATCH 831 CONTINUES UNTIL 07Z.

RADAR PLACES CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVAN OVER ERN BLOUNT COUNTY AL
MOVING SLOWLY NNEWD.  WARM SECTOR AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY LOW-MID
70S DEW POINTS HAS ADVECTED NWWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS.  THIS
HAS MAINTAINED WEAK BUOYANCY ACROSS THE REGION...MAINTAINING A TSTM
THREAT.

PERSISTENT SPIRAL BAND OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE NWD...ARCING FROM
UPSTATE SC SWD TO ERN PNHDL OF FL.  THE GREATEST DEGREE OF BACKING
TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW EXISTS WITHIN TORNADO WATCH 831...
PARTICULARLY VCNTY KAND.  VWP FROM GREER SHOWS GREATER THAN 35 KTS
OF 0-1KM SHEAR.  SO...EVEN THOUGH CELLS HAVE BECOME MUCH LESS
DISCRETE THAN EARLIER IN THE EVENING...EMBEDDED BRIEF TORNADOES MAY
STILL OCCUR OVER EXTREME NERN GA AND UPSTATE SC...PARTICULARLY AS
THE WARM MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT NWWD.

THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WEAKENS FARTHER W ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF GA AND
S INTO NRN FL. HOWEVER...GIVEN VWP DERIVED 0-1KM SRH OF  BETTER
THAN 150 M2/S2...VERY BRIEF AND ISOLD TORNADOES/WIND DAMAGE CANNOT
BE RULED OUT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS THE BAND OF TSTMS ROTATES NEWD
TOWARD WAYCROSS AND VIDALIA.

..RACY.. 09/17/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...CHS...JAX...TAE...

32848345 34918340 35498060 33368058 

29948365 31588286 32848261 33098167 32188150 30338217
29808234 

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