[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 161207
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161203 
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-161400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2221
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0703 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...AL...SWRN GA...FL PNHDL AND PARTS OF NRN FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 826...827...

VALID 161203Z - 161400Z

CENTER OF IVAN CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND AND WAS MOVING NNEWD
ACROSS MONROE COUNTY ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXTENSIVE
CONVECTIVE FEEDER BANDS CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL AROUND THE CENTER OF
THE DEEP TROPICAL CYCLONE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN AND NERN
PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. WIND PROFILE DATA OVER A LARGE AREA OF
AL/SRN GA AND NRN FL WERE INDICATING VERY INTENSE TO EXTREME VALUES
OF 0-1KM HELICITY...ON THE ORDER OF 600-1200 M2/S2. JUST ABOUT ANY
CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT IN THIS TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT WILL ACQUIRE
ROTATION AND COULD END UP PRODUCING A TORNADO.

SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE CELLS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING WITHIN AN OUTER
RAINBAND LOCATED FROM CROSS CITY, FL TO NE OF MONTGOMERY, AL. A FEW
ROTATING CELLS WITHIN THIS ARC OVER FL AND GA ARE OVER 200 MILES
FROM THE CENTER OF IVAN. THIS IS AN INDICATION OF JUST HOW LARGE THE
STRONG WIND FIELD IS WITH THIS HURRICANE.

ANOTHER BAND OF INTENSE CONVECTION WITH NUMEROUS CG LIGHTNING
STRIKES WAS NEAR THE AL/GA LINE. THIS BAND...BEING CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF IVAN IS LIKELY OCCURRING IN AN EVEN MORE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT AND ANY CELLS WITHIN THE BAND WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A
THREAT OF TORNADOES.

TORNADO POTENTIAL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF IVAN....
INCLUDING MOBILE, AL...APPEARS TO BE LESSENING AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
AWAY. SOME OF THESE AREAS WILL BE CLEARED FROM TORNADO WATCH 826
SHORTLY.

..CARBIN.. 09/16/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

29498263 30218819 33408825 32688370 31988369 31878263 

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