[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 152026
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152023 
WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-152200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2217
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0323 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF WI INTO WRN UP OF MI

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 824...

VALID 152023Z - 152200Z

GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS NERN WI INTO
THE WRN UP OF MI THROUGH 22Z.

AS OF 2015Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A SERIES OF
CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS FROM JUST SW OF IWD SWD TO W OF CWA MOVING
NEWD AT 40-45 KTS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS
SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN A REGION OF STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF A N-S PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/WIND SHIFT AND
WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500
J/KG. CURRENT GREEN BAY VWP IS SHOWING A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS
AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-250 M2/S2. THOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO REMAIN
POSSIBLE...PREDOMINANT LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OWING TO THE
STRONG...AMBIENT WIND FIELDS AND RESULTANT FAST STORM MOTIONS.

ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY EXTEND NE OF WW 824 LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
ATTM OWING TO WEAKER INSTABILITY AND A STRONGER CAP WITH NEWD
EXTENT.

..MEAD.. 09/15/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...

45739277 46649274 46588739 44348751 43808923 43508982
43589090 43849146 44819274 

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