[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 151938
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151934 
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-152100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2216
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS / WRN AND CNTRL MO / NERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 151934Z - 152100Z

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION
AREA. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW
ISSUANCE.

AS OF 1920Z...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS
INTENSIFYING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG/SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT FROM NEAR MKC SWWD TO NW OF BVO. DESPITE CONSIDERABLE
PRE-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS...MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S/ COUPLED WITH DIABATIC HEATING HAVE
ALLOWED MLCAPES TO INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG OVER W-CNTRL MO...TO
AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG OVER NERN OK. SUSTAINED FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING CAP SHOULD
SUPPORT CONTINUED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. 

LINEAR FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT ALONG WITH LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES /PER AREA VWPS/PROFILERS/ SUGGEST
MAINLY A LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS.
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE DISCRETE...ROTATING STORMS EXISTS FARTHER
DOWNSTREAM ALONG OR JUST N OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES A WEAK W-E ORIENTED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND RESULTANT REGION OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.

..MEAD.. 09/15/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

37089651 39249414 39919351 40059211 39559164 37329323
36729405 36349581 

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