[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 160112
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160109 
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-160315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2218
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0809 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...SWRN GA AND FL PNHDL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 825...

VALID 160109Z - 160315Z

THE RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
SPREAD FARTHER INLAND ACROSS SRN AL AND SWRN GA.  

01Z MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS THE CENTER OF HRCN IVAN ABOUT 90NM SOUTH OF
KMOB.  AN OLD FRONT EXTENDED ROUGHLY E-W FROM SCNTRL AL EWD ACROSS
SRN GA TO COASTAL SC.  

EARLIER THIS EVENING...TSTMS DEVELOPED VCNTY THE FRONT OVER SWRN GA.
 THESE CELLS QUICKLY BECAME TORNADIC WHERE AIR MASS HEATED THIS
AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND APPEAR TO
HAVE LARGELY BEEN TIED WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND HAVE WEAKENED.

HOWEVER...A WELL-DEVELOPED SPIRAL BAND CONTAINING EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS ARCS FROM SCNTRL AL TO THE CNTRL FL PNHDL THEN SWD INTO
THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO.  CELLS ARE MOVING 150/50 AND LATEST VWP FROM
PENSACOLA SUGGESTS 0-1KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 350 M2/S2.  

AS THE CENTER OF IVAN CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE AL COASTLINE...
THE TORNADO THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SPREAD FARTHER
INLAND ACROSS SRN AL AND SWRN GA.  LATER THIS EVENING...IT WILL
BECOME NECESSARY TO REISSUE/REORIENT TORNADO WATCH 825 THAT EXPIRES
AT 0700 UTC.

..RACY.. 09/16/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

30348824 32598822 31928400 29688395 

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