[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 151621
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151617 
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-151745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2215
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...FL PNHDL WWD ACROSS FAR SRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 151617Z - 151745Z

POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH RAINBAND SUPERCELLS IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY 1800Z.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES OUTER RAINBAND ASSOCIATED WITH IVAN
FROM 110W PIE TO 70S AQQ TO 55SW OF PFN MOVING N OR NW AT 30-40KTS.
INSPECTION OF EGLIN AFB VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF 
A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 300-350 M2/S2. EXPECT
RAINBAND AND ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT TO APPROACH THE COAST IN THE
1800 TO 2000Z TIME FRAME...LIKELY REQUIRING THE ISSUANCE OF A
TORNADO WATCH.

..MEAD.. 09/15/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

30068823 30818815 31188693 31138513 30608399 29898397
29288439 29568578 30008680 

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