[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 151550
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151547 
WIZ000-MNZ000-151715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2214
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1047 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL/SERN MN EWD INTO WRN/CNTRL WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 151547Z - 151715Z

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA AND A
WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY 1700 OR 1730Z.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A SURFACE LOW NE OF RWF WITH AN
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDED EWD TO NEAR MSP AND INTO NRN WI
/N OF AUW/. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A REGION OF
COMPARATIVELY LESS CLOUDINESS OVER SERN MN/W-CNTRL WI WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 70S. WHEN COUPLED WITH
DEWPOINTS OF 65-70F...MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 1000 J/KG
WITH ABSOLUTE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION NOW AOB 50 J/KG. 

CURRENT SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD INTO FAR NWRN WI AHEAD OF
VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NEWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES.
SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE LIKELY
WITH TIME LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITHIN REGION OF
LOCALLY STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING ALONG/S OF WARM FRONT AND E/SE OF
SURFACE LOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES GIVEN 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-45KTS AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 250-350
M2/S2.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED AS
SOON AS 1700 OR 1730Z.

..MEAD.. 09/15/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

44469343 45539313 46239162 46149014 44958986 44059024
43519068 43519205 43819281 

WWWW