[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 150903
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150900 
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-151130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2213
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB INTO SWRN IA AND NRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 150900Z - 151130Z

NEARLY SOLID LINE OF DEEP CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST AT
40KT ACROSS THE MO RIVER EARLY TODAY. 40-50KT WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE. TIME OF DAY AND BORDERLINE NATURE OF
THE SEVERE WIND THREAT SUGGESTS A WATCH IS UNNECESSARY DESPITE
STRONG FORCING TO MAINTAIN TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION.

POTENT UPPER TROUGH WITH 50-60KT MID LEVEL FLOW WAS SPREADING EAST
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY TODAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
NWRN IA WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WHILE TRACKING INTO SWRN MN. AS THIS
OCCURS...TRAILING COLD FRONT/SQUALL LINE WILL SWEEP EWD/SEWD INTO
INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS ERN NEB AND SWRN IA. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING LOW...IN ADDITION TO MATURE CONVECTIVE
COLD POOL BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE...SHOULD MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION
ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT. UPDRAFTS ASSOCIATED WITH STORM SCALE
BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS ALONG THE LINE HAVE RESULTED IN OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO AROUND 50KT ACROSS SRN NEB OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
EXPECT THIS POTENTIAL TO PERSIST ALONG SMALL SEGMENTS THE LINE AS IT
MOVES EAST INTO IA. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS MOST TSTM GUSTS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 40-50KT RANGE AND A WATCH MAY NOT BE NEEDED UNLESS A
MORE WIDESPREAD/HIGHER WIND THREAT DEVELOPS.

..CARBIN.. 09/15/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...

40289452 40119677 41039613 42079573 42389488 42549179
40599272 

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