[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 142348
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142344 
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-150115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2208
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NE CO/SE WY INTO WRN/CNTRL NEB AND FAR NRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 820...

VALID 142344Z - 150115Z

CONTINUE VALID PORTION OF WW 820. FURTHER EAST...AN ADDITIONAL WW
MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL NEB AND NRN KS.

MCS APPEARS TO EVOLVING ACROSS NE CO/SRN NEB PANHANDLE IN MIDST OF
WW 820...WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS WRN/CNTRL
NEB AND NW KS THIS EVENING. POTENT NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND INCREASING S/SW LOW LEVEL JET /FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
50-55 KTS THIS EVENING/ WILL SUPPORT CONTINUAL EVOLUTION OF ONE OR
MORE TSTM COMPLEXES INTO CNTRL NEB AND NW/NCNTRL KS THIS EVENING.
VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS /DEEP LAYER SHEAR 50 KTS OR GREATER/ AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE THREAT THROUGH
THE EVENING.

MAIN HAZARD LIKELY TO BE LARGE HAIL...WITH DAMAGING WINDS A
POSSIBILITY AS WELL...ALTHOUGH PROGRESSIVELY STABILIZING BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL TEND TO BE PROHIBITIVE FACTOR. ADDITIONALLY AN ISOLD
TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS -- NAMELY ACROSS
EXTREME NE CO AND FAR SW NEB/FAR NW KS -- WHERE LOW LEVEL HELICITY
IS MAXIMIZED AND BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE.

..GUYER.. 09/14/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

41600526 41840284 42020042 42199746 40579723 39969757
39450047 39530292 39370517 

WWWW